2017 Spring April 18 Tuesday

58 degrees this morning, walk 34:37 minutes

58 degrees sounded cool this morning, but without any wind, it was a pleasant walk. Pace was 6 seconds faster than the goal. I knew I was consciously walking faster, but had no idea how fast, actually I thought I was walking a faster pace than that.

i am really looking forward to warmer weather and walking in the morning in lighter clothes etc.

No coughing this morning at all, which was good.

The book I am listening to, on “Algorithms in Real Life” (or something like that) is interesting, if I can remember all of the details.

Discussion this morning included the optimal time to sell your house. I really think selling your home is impossible to do so on a rational basis, although it was interesting to listen to the theory. The theory involved the “expected” selling range, time, etc.

I think selling your home is so much an emotional impact, and housing prices are so irrational, it is really impossible to try to use some type of algorithm to sell your home.

Of course, if the housing market is really strong and housing scarce, almost anything you do will work. If it is a “buyers market”, probably nothing you do will work.

He did make a good point about plugging in the cost of paying the mortgage each month, etc.,and also noted there are other “costs”, including when you have to move etc.

Another problem the book discussed was the “when to quit” problem. They discussed when is enough, enough, and the optimal time to stop.

Of course, all of their algorithms involve making a rational decision and don’t include a lot of emotional, social, political and other factors that are involved in decision making.

Along with that, I am watching a copy of “Mad Money” from last night, and Jim Cramer is discussing “when to sell”, which is something like “when to quit”, except in this case you do know if you sold too soon or not.

I finally took the basic premise that if I make a profit, it is good.

You think there is nothing worse than “selling too soon” and watching a stock you sold keep climbing, until you “sell too late”and watch a stock tank and you are losing money!

Somewhat described it once as “could have, should have” decisions which describe it well.

Actually Cramer says you can never lose taking a profit, but the best time to sell is when too many analysts start promoting the stock!

Tax day today. Actually I mailed my payment in a little early, just to be sure! If I can arrange to get a refund, frankly I will. I know you always read about recommendations to adjust so you don’t get a refund, but I think this just isn’t rational for a lot of people.

Many people use it as a means of “forced savings”, and I don’t see anything wrong with that, what little interest they may lose is more than made up by the fact they have a lump sum refund when they file their tax returns.

Many businesses advise that the tax refunds are like a second Christmas shopping time for them, since people have a large amount of discretionary money to spend!

That’s it for now, Tuesday, April 18, 2017.


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